Electricity Market Information from Ofgem

Electricity and Gas Supply Market Indicators

Updated: 26th September 2012

Overview

Ofgem produces a rolling average net margin on supplying a typical standard tariff, dual fuel customer.¹ This is an average of the estimated net margin data for the previous six months, the current month, and the next six months.² We also produce a snapshot estimate of the net margin on supplying a typical, standard tariff, dual fuel customer for the next 12 months.

Our latest calculations show that the rolling average net margin for a typical, standard tariff dual fuel customer is approximately £45. This is the same level as our previous estimate, which we published on 19 September.

Our estimates also show that for the 12 month period from September 2012 up to and including August 2013 the total indicative net margin for a typical, standard tariff dual fuel customer will be approximately £40 per customer. This is also the same level as our previous estimate.

We expect the snapshot margin to rise to around £65 over the next three months. This is largely a result of a change to the future retail bill (SSE announced it will increase its gas and electricity prices by an average of 9% on 15 October). However there are many uncertainties, not least continued changes in wholesale prices, which could affect this figure.

We have also assumed that the current average annual bill of a `Big 6’ standard tariff dual fuel customer remains unchanged from our previous estimate, at £1,310 per year.

¹ This estimate is one indicator of supplier margin, however there are others. For example, Ofgm requires the large, vertically integrated suppliers to publicly report a Consolidated Segmental Statement (CSS). The CSSs provide separate revenues, costs and profits for generation and for domestic/non-domestic electricity and gas supply. The CSSs are published on each supplier's website. Links to the 2010 statements can also be found on the Ofgem website at http://www.ofgem.gov.uk/Pages/MoreInformation.aspx?docid=283&refer=Markets/RetMkts/ensuppro
² A detailed description of the rolling average net margin indicator can be found in our methodology statement, available at http://www.ofgem.gov.uk/Markets/RetMkts/rmr/smr/Documents1/SMR_METHODOLOGY.pdf

Typical dual fuel customer bill, costs and total indicative net margin for the next 12 months

Typical electricity customer bill, costs and total indicative net margin for the next 12 months

Typical gas customer bill, costs and total indicative net margin for the next 12 months

Changes in retail bills, costs and total indicative net margin for the next 12 months – September 2012

Dual Fuel	Year
	Sep-08	Sep-09	Sep-10	Sep-11	Sep-12
Customer bill	£1,215	£1,145	£1,105	£1,315	£1,310
Wholesale costs	£665	£595	£485	£595	£620
VAT and other costs	£390	£410	£445	£505	£515
Gross margin	£160	£145	£175	£215	£170
Operating costs	£125	£130	£130	£130	£130
Total indicative net margin for the next 12 months	£35	£15	£45	£85	£40
Rolling net margin	-£25	£20	£50	£40	£45
Notes: 1) Customer bill is for standard tariffs, weighted by payment method and market share. Average figures assume electricity consumption of 4MWh/yr, gas consumption of 16.9MWh/yr. Figures rounded to nearest £5 and may not sum due to rounding. 2) The indicative net margin for a dual fuel customer may not equal the sum of the gas and electricity indicative net margins, partly reflecting different market shares for dual fuel and single fuel customers.

Electricity	Year
	Sep-08	Sep-09	Sep-10	Sep-11	Sep-12
Customer bill	£545	£510	£505	£580	£580
Wholesale costs	£275	£245	£200	£230	£230
VAT and other costs	£175	£190	£210	£235	£250
Gross margin	£95	£75	£90	£110	£100
Operating costs	£65	£65	£65	£65	£65
Total indicative net margin for the next 12 months	£30	£10	£25	£45	£35
Rolling net margin	£15	£10	£30	£30	£35
Notes: Customer bill is for standard tariffs, weighted by payment method and market share. Average figures assume electricity consumption of 4MWh/yr. Figures rounded to nearest £5 and may not sum due to rounding.

Gas	Year
	Sep-08	Sep-09	Sep-10	Sep-11	Sep-12
Customer bill	£705	£665	£615	£775	£775
Wholesale costs	£390	£350	£285	£365	£390
VAT and other costs	£215	£220	£235	£270	£270
Gross margin	£100	£95	£100	£145	£110
Operating costs	£60	£65	£65	£65	£65
Total indicative net margin for the next 12 months	£40	£35	£35	£80	£50
Rolling net margin	-£15	£30	£40	£45	£50
Notes: Customer bill is for standard tariffs, weighted by payment method and market share. Average figures assume gas consumption of 16.9MWh/yr. Figures rounded to nearest £5 and may not sum due to rounding.

Methodology

Our methodology is unchanged from the publication of the quarterly reports. The only addition is a rolling average net margin figure. We have introduced this indicator to increase transparency about net margin levels. As the net margin figure can vary significantly in a year, in reaction to falling or rising costs, a balanced alternative measure is to consider the average margin over an extended period of time. This then smoothes out fluctuations and volatile net margin figures. Please see our methodology for the Supply Market Report [PDF].

Notwithstanding the introduction of a rolling average net margin indicator to the supply market indicators, it is important to remember that it is a forward-looking estimate of the net margin on supplying a typical, standard tariff, dual fuel customer. It is therefore likely to change over time as more information on costs and prices becomes available. It also does not capture all the discounted deals that may be available to consumers, including those available online.

More comprehensive information on individual energy companies’ revenues, costs and profits in both their generation and supply arms is available on a backward-looking basis through their Consolidated Segmental Statements. These are produced annually by energy companies and are available on the Ofgem website. The requirement to produce these accounts was introduced by Ofgem following its Energy Supply Probe.

Updating our assumptions

Our estimate of net margin is based on numerous assumptions. These include assumptions about typical household energy consumption and estimates of suppliers’ costs. We will periodically review these components in due course and will look to update our assumptions as they change, including for example, updating our consumption information. We may also utilise requests for information where this is the most appropriate route to gather data. However we do not intend to use this approach for the foreseeable future. In the meantime, if suppliers wish to provide us with updated information we will be happy to consider utilising it in the report.

Where we update our data, we will keep a log of when a change takes effect and a short description, as below.

Updates to assumptions used:

• 17 July 2012 - updated suppliers' market shares

• 2 July 2012 - updated suppliers' market shares and updated payment method shares (Direct Debit, prepayment and standard credit)

• 20 June 2012 - update to other costs including the inclusion of ECO in the model

• 21 May 2012 - updated suppliers' market shares

• 25 April 2012 - updated electricity network charges in 'other costs'

• 11 April 2012 - updated payment method shares (direct debit, standard credit, prepayment)

• 21 March 2012 - updated suppliers' market shares

Domestic Customers - Time to Switch Suppliers!

Energy Customers Must Act Now

ENERGYLINX: With 9 gas and electricity tariffs set to be removed from the market by early October, energy customers may want to consider switching tariffs as soon as possible so as to avoid an impending increase in the price they pay for their energy.

Amidst last month's premature removal of several cheap, fixed rate tariffs - preceded by Scottish and Southern Energy's announcement of an impending hike in prices of up to 10.75% - customers should be alert as to what will occur at the end of their capped or fixed rate period.

Within the next several weeks, 9 tariffs will reach their expiration date and be removed from the market:

· EDF - Fixed S@ver version 2
· EDF - Online S@ver version 10
· EDF - Online S@ver version 12
· E.ON - Fixed Price October 2012
· E.ON - Track and Save 10
· British Gas - Websaver 12
· British Gas - Websaver 12 with EnergyExtra 50
· British Gas - Price Cap 2012
· Scottish Power - Direct October 2012

Some of these tariffs - such as British Gas' Websaver 12 and EDF's Online S@ver plans include guaranteed rate discounts of between 2-6% against the suppliers' standard tier rates; meanwhile, others such as EDF's Fixed S@ver and British Gas' Price Cap 2012 have maintained lower, long-term fixed rate unit prices. Yet despite key differences surrounding plan incentives and discounts, all of the tariffs scheduled for removal have one feature in common: after said tariff's end-date, customers will automatically be transferred over to their suppliers' standard rate tariff.

In many cases, the customers being transferred from these 9 tariffs stand to lose substantially more than 2-6% by being dumped onto their suppliers' standard tariffs - in fact, some customers who have been on long-term fixed rate tariffs could see an increase in prices of up to 20%.

Bearing in mind that these imminent price increases are merely due to an expiration of great deals - as opposed to industry-wide price hikes - customers should be made aware that they have the ability in order to minimise the impacts of their upcoming tariff transfers, and are encouraged to take action.

Around 80,000 customers in the UK switch energy suppliers on a weekly basis, enabling themselves to avoid such 'automatic' price changes as that which are about to occur. Yet simultaneously, figures from industry regulator OFGEM indicate that around 60% of energy users have never pursued switching companies - and are collectively paying an annual £4 billion more for their energy bills than they should be.

By using our 100% free and impartial energy comparison tool, Energylinx can help homeowners to find the cheapest deal for their home. If you are currently participating in one of the following tariffs that are scheduled for removal from the market this month:

· EDF - Fixed S@ver version 2
· EDF - Online S@ver version 10
· EDF - Online S@ver version 12
· E.ON - Fixed Price October 2012
· E.ON - Track and Save 10
· British Gas - Websaver 12
· British Gas - Websaver 12 with EnergyExtra 50
· British Gas - Price Cap 2012
· Scottish Power - Direct October 2012

Click here to get the cheapest deal for your energy http://www.getmecheapbills.com

Could your 'Green' house by costing you money?

Are Exhaust Air Source Heat Pumps Costing You More Than Expected?

ENERGYLINX: Families afflicted by high energy costs could be the victims of green technology.

An expose by BBC's Rip Off Britain found that many families residing in new, 'state-of-the-art' government-funded housing projects are shelling out three to four times more for electricity than they expected to be paying.

As part of the UK government's commitment towards establishing a greener building infrastructure, recently-constructed housing developments throughout the UK were fitted with exhaust air source heat pumps - a system in which the heat from wasted air is pumped back into homes, providing free heat and hot water. However, residents were left shocked after being charged over three times more for their electricity than was estimated by the Energy Performance Certificates which accompanied their new homes.

With some residents being charged over £250 for electricity in just two months, independent studies conducted by heating engineers have concluded that the heating systems - which are designed in order to run 24 hours per day - are unable to heat homes as efficiently as those of the system's Swedish creators, which are apparently better insulated. As a result, these heating systems automatically switch on an electric immersion heater as a means of countering this handicap, leading to astronomically high electricity bills for weary customers.

Unfortunately for UK families, these systems have become a popular choice amongst nationwide building developers - who are legally obligated to integrate some form of 'green technology' into most government housing projects. Yet in the case of these air source heating systems - which are thought to have already been installed in over 15,000 UK homes - green technology has undoubtedly failed to save customers on energy bills.

Indeed, one of the four key goals of the UK's Department of Energy & Climate Change (DECC) is to "reduce energy use by households, businesses and the public sector, and help to protect the fuel poor." However, this goal is admittedly difficult to achieve amidst a government-mandated technology being installed into the homes of UK's lower-income families that, in truth, costs families up to three or four times more for their electricity bills - and actually wastes energy in the process.

As a result, Phoenix Energy would advise that all customers being affected by extraordinarily high electricity bills - regardless of whether they have had an exhaust air source heat pump fitted - Check here to get a free impartial, independent energy quote.